Massive weather systems occasionally converge in extraordinary ways and create a "perfect storm". Four labor force megatrends are now converging to create a perfect storm job markets that will impact career prospects for decades to come. These megatrends are:
The Great Recession: The global economy and communities across the country are weathering the worst economic down-turn since the Great Depression nearly a century ago. Despite a combination of service cutback and massive economic stimulus, recovery is slow and faltering, and the economy is vulnerable.
Aging Population: The first baby boomers, born in 1947, reach 65 in 2012. Those who have already retired will be followed into retirement by tsunami-like waves of boomers each year for the next 16 years. This mass exodus of talent will create a void that new labor force entrants cannot fill. The birth rate has declined over the past 4 decades. Young people are now having fewer children, later, if at all. Even factoring for immigration, the projected worker shortfall of close to 500,000 in 2012 will grow to close to 3 million in 2031.
Upskilling of Jobs: Accelerating technological advances have rendered many jobs obsolete, raised the skills requirements of the remaining jobs in all sectors, and are producing new types of jobs at an unimagined rate. More formal education, technical training, and "soft skills" are now demanded of workers in all job sectors, but especially in new and emerging career fields. Employers need people who can problem-solve and innovate, collaborate effectively with others of diverse backgrounds, have a thirst for learning, are responsible and dependable, and are fully committed to their employer’s success. It is estimated that 80% or more of all jobs available now and in the future require some form of formal postsecondary education or training, often with a focus on science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM).
Even now, employers across the full spectrum of industry sectors are encountering serious challenges finding the talent they require to fill jobs vacated by retiring baby boomers and newly created ones. Yet, we are entering a prolonged era when a growing number of people will be looking for jobs, and even more jobs will be looking for people. Unfortunately, the jobs looking for people do not want many of the people looking for jobs. The disconnect is skill level.
Unprepared Workforce. In raw numbers, the biggest workforce challenge is upgrading the skills of current workers and adult job seekers. Few employers are investing adequately in employee career management and training. Workers themselves are not investing adequately in upgrading their skills. If their employer provides inadequate skills upgrading opportunities, few can quit work for an extended period to upgrade their skills.
Inadequate support is available to help students imagine the future they want to create. Without a vision of their future, many students fail to see personal relevance in their academic studies. Today’s students will need higher levels of academic, technical and "soft" skills than any cohort before them. Yet, too many are not fully engaged in their education and are underachieving. Of 100 students in the educational pipeline in the 9th grade, fewer than 30 will graduate on schedule from post-secondary degree, diploma or certificate. The portends are clear. Much of our current and future workforce is at risk of becoming casualties of the looming perfect storm in the job market. A new paradigm of career navigation and workforce preparation is required.
Basic building blocks of this new paradigm, exemplary career and workforce development resources already exist.However, they tend to be used in fragmented fashion, and are largely underutilized. Consensus on "best practices" suggests a core of 5 "foundational resources" should be in place at all levels of education. They include:
- Experiential career learning programs at all primary, middle, secondary and post-secondary school levels;
- Comprehensive Internet-based career exploration and planning systems;
- Electronic portfolio systems that follow students through education levels out into adulthood;
- Online course planning systems linked to student information systems that enable students, teachers and parents to collaborate in maintaining individual learning plans for all students; and
- Online networking systems to connect students with informed dreams, and adult job seekers, to employers seeking immediate and future talent. These connections can result in immediate hires, as well as work experience, job shadowing, co-op, volunteerism, and part-time job opportunities that allow employers and students to "test the fit."
Entire communities need to be mobilized in support of these foundational career and workforce development resources, including:
- all teachers, counselors and administrators in all primary, middle, secondary and post-secondary schools, including public and private universities, colleges, vocational, technical and trade schools
- parents
- employer and industry organizations
- community agencies that support workforce and human capital development, including government agencies, chambers of commerce, and service clubs
Without whole community buy-in, use of even the best resources is fragmented and their benefits less than optimal. Here at Career Cruising, we are working hard to partner with educational, business, and community leaders to implement a whole-community approach to career and workforce development to assure prosperity for individuals, families and communities despite the perfect storm.
If you have any thoughts for tackling the "Perfect Storm" please share them with us!
Phil Jarvis
Director of Global Partnerships
The Perfect Storm PowerPoint can be downloaded here: Perfect Storm PPT
The Perfect Storm Rationale can be downloaded here: Perfect Storm Rationale
Tristram Hooley
I think that I agree with Cindy's comment. I find your argument that there is going to be massive change in the labour market convincing - but this will also open up opportunities as well as challenges. As a Gen Xer the idea that the Boomers are going to retire offers me some opportunities and is actually pretty exciting.
I think that there are some other megatrends that you could also include. I would include the movement of work and political power to the BRIC countries as a megatrend that those of us in the US and Europe are going to have to get used to. I'd also include the growth of internet technologies and particularly social media as something that has the potential to shift both how the labour market operates and how we are able to respond to it in education.
Phil Jarvis
"Students are borrowing their way to unemployment"
This was the title of an article by Matt Gurney in yesterday's (Feb 22) National Post. Here's the lead paragraph:
"According to a recent survey of what jobs are in demand, and what students are studying in university, many, if not most, of today’s university students are spending good money — probably borrowed money at that — to get themselves a university degree that will prove essentially useless to them the instant they graduate. As Ontario’s manufacturing sector has evaporated, the economy has become such that new graduates have basically three options — a highly skilled professional career (including, perhaps, learning a trade), a low-paid job in the service industry or working for the government. And if you haven’t been paying attention, that last option isn’t looking so hot these days. So what is the smart kid, in their late teen or early 20s, to do? Sadly for them … not what they are doing."
To read the full article go to: http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2012/02/22/matt-gurney-university-students-borrowing-their-way-into-unemployment/
Matt is suggesting the need for a "reality check" for students while they are in secondary school. This is precisely what the ccEngage suite offers. If school systems decide to put a priority on helping students prepare for success beyond graduation, the best tools in the world are available to them.
Phil Jarvis
“What the whole world wants is a good job. When asked about the most important problem they face, people worldwide consistently mention the availability of jobs. But just any job is not enough.” [Google "Good Jobs: The New Global Standard, Gallup"]
A good first job is what students want after the final bell rings. It’s what parents want for each other, and for their kids. In order for our communities to prosper, despite the "Perfect Storm", it’s what we want for all citizens. The education system has to graduate students ready to step into good jobs and successful lives – able to comfortably pay back whatever student loan debt they have accumulated while enjoying their days at work.
Jeff Harris
Cindy, I love your comment about sunny skies prevailing. Phil often talks about the great opportunities that will be be available for those who can successfully navigate today's job market. I couldn't agree more with your point about "leading with credibility" and equipping people to make the right decisions for themselves. If we, the career development community, can do a great job of preparing students to effectively manage their career, we can help ensure as many young people as possible will be enjoying the sunny skies.
Cindy Haeck, NCC, LPC - Michigan
I've used this metaphor when facilitating career planning courses...with the reminder that sunny skies generally prevail after all is said and done. Agreed that critical factors are descending simultaneously - economic, global interdependence, exponential technological shifts, financial aid debt crisis - causing us to take note of the "warning sirens" blaring...but there's an element of positive energy in it all. Historically, shifts in automation during the industrial era created quite the same stir I suspect. Our role as educators and professionals is to lead with credibility, provide quality information, work interdependently to maximize resources and promote healthy decision making. Create the change you wish to see in the world!
Phil Jarvis
Jodie, and others interested in high growth career options;
According to Laurence Shatkin, Ph.D., of JIST Publishing, based on U.S. Feb 1, 2012 Bureau of Labor Statistics projections here are the projected fastest growing college-level occupations in the U.S. (2010 to 2020):
61.7% Biomedical engineers
52.0% Veterinary technologists and technicians
45.7% Physical therapist assistants
43.7% Meeting, convention, and event planners
43.5% Diagnostic medical sonographers
43.3% Occupational therapy assistants
42.2% Interpreters and translators
41.2% Market research analysts and marketing specialists
39.0% Physical therapists
37.7% Dental hygienists
36.8% Audiologists
36.5% Health educators
36.4% Cost estimators
36.4% Medical scientists, except epidemiologists
36.3% Mental health counsellors
35.9% Veterinarians
35.4% Geographers
34.9% Industrial-organizational psychologists
33.5% Occupational therapists
33.5% Healthcare social workers
33.1% Optometrists
32.4% Systems developers, systems software
32.1% Personal financial advisors
31.5% Medical equipment repairers
31.3% Mental health and substance abuse social workers
30.8% Biochemists and biophysicists
30.6% Database administrators
30.0% Athletic trainers
This will give you a good idea where the highest growth is expected in this decade. Keep in mind there are hundreds of other career possibilities. Growth should be just one factor you consider. The key is to make your career choices based on your own unique interests, skills and preferences, then find the right employers. ccSpringboard can be a big help in identifying good career prospects for you and, if it's available in your area, ccInspire can help you find local employers.
Norman Amundson
The metaphor you are using really captures the severity of the situation. There is no doubt that a big storm is "a brewing". The question now is how to handle the situation - how to become an agent of positive change. Involving the whole community is certainly one of the steps, are there also other strategies that we could and should be employing?
Jodie
Great information... Just curious, with the research you are doing on workforce megatrends are you able to project what markets will be best for a focal point in college studies? Can you predict the future job markets that will have a greater percentage of jobs for hire say 5 to 10 years from now?
Phil Jarvis
We simply have to do a better job of preparing our youth for early success when they exit our education and training institutions.
Tim Weber, Business editor, BBC News writes from Davos, “When usually quietly spoken company bosses from all corners of the earth warn of "not a crisis, but a disaster," when they call something a "cancer in society," you know we have a problem. The world, they say, is "sitting on a social and economic time bomb". The world is plagued by youth unemployment." To see the entire article go to:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-16774301
The storm's a' brewing!
Cory
Thx for posting this. It's interesting & informative.